Website forecasts BC NDP sweep

BC Premier Christy Clark.



VANCOUVER - If British Columbians went to the polls today Liberal Premier Christy Clark would be swept from office and likely lose her own seat, according to a political blog.

Based on calculations by Threehundredeight.com, the BC NDP would win between 46 to 75 seats giving current Opposition Leader Adrian Dix the premier’s job.

Website founder Eric Grenier used recent polling numbers that show the BC NDP would capture 49% of the vote and the BC Liberals 30%.

“That margin has been overcome in a six-month period very few times,” said Grenier. “Comebacks happen in about one in 20 cases and the odds of the Liberals being able to come back are still very, very low.”

His predictions were formulated by using available polling data, and weighing the information based on when the poll was released, the sample size and the previous success of the polling firm. He also projected individual ridings, including Clark’s Vancouver-Point Grey race, although those have a far greater margin of error.

“If the election was held today she would definitely be in trouble, but six months is a long way away,” Grenier added. “She won her seat by three points in the byelection and her (Vancouver-Point Grey) seat is one of the seats you would expect to flip.”

Recently, things have looked up in the polls for the BC Liberals. A Nov. 23 Angus Reid poll showed Liberal support throughout the province, rising from 23% to 29%.

The next provincial election is May 14.
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